Polls

The fascination with poll results this election cycle is perplexing, since by any measure, polls are considerably less effective at predicting election results than they were ten years ago. There are many reasons for this, a significant one is the prevalence of cell phones, which make it easier for people to opt out of polling. Yet, we still look at polls as if they actually tell us something. Who was invited to the Republican "debates" was dependent on poll results. Donald Trump's main argument for voting for him in the early primaries was largely based on how well he was doing in the polls. Sanders supporters want Clinton to drop out because they say that polls indicate that Sanders could geat Trump while Clinton could not. Everybody ignores the fact that different polls say different things. In fact, with targeted wording, they can be made to say just what you want them to say.

I can understand the need for political campaigns to utilize polls in order to decide where to run certain ads, what areas might be "safe" and where to concentrate get-out-the-vote efforts. But to use a poll as any kind of reliable prediction of how people will vote is not very helpful.